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23-25 June

By Gerg, on June 17th, 2015

Outcome: Zip, nada, biggest system prediction fail in recent memory . . . → Read More: 23-25 June

17-18 June

By Gerg, on June 15th, 2015

Outcome: Too warm

Outcome

Perisher Valley claimed 2 cm snowfall, which looks pretty accurate. We’re now officially at zero snow depth at Spencers Creek. There’s still a bit of snow high on the Main Range and under high-quality snow making equipment, but that’s it.

JMA precipitation inferred from satellite imagery (rain!)

BOM surface chart archive

Update

This is looking more marginal now I’m afraid. The shape has shifted slightly so that Thursday’s feed is a bit more . . . → Read More: 17-18 June

4-5 June

By Gerg, on June 3rd, 2015

Outcome: 5 cm Outcome:

Light snowfalls only — Perisher Valley claimed 5 cm; Falls Creek 8 cm. The system weakened and slipped north just as it approached the alps (click for sources):

JMA precipitation inferred from satellite imagery

BOM surface chart archive

Original post (3 June)

After missing last weekend’s nice little season starter (30 May – 1 June; 30 cm at Perisher Valley), time to get in on the act. There’ll be an odd little . . . → Read More: 4-5 June

Updating the geological temperature graph

By Gerg, on June 2nd, 2015

A weakness of my combined geological temperature record graph has always been the Royer / Veizer temperatures for the Cretaceous (66-145 My) and earlier. Unfortunately some people don’t read caveats and just take the thing as gospel, even citing actual numerical values from it

. . . → Read More: Updating the geological temperature graph

Make that nine...

By Gerg, on May 21st, 2015

Global monthly temperatures since 1970 -- instrumental estimates

I’ve now added the Japan Meteorological Agency’s temperature series to the global temperature plots on the graph pages (you may need a browser refresh to see the latest versions)

. . . → Read More: Make that nine…

We're off

By Gerg, on May 20th, 2015

But don’t get too excited, the depth will be zero tomorrow…

. . . → Read More: We’re off

Madden-Julian and snow #2

By Gerg, on May 1st, 2015

Also see: Madden-Julian and snow #1

It’s interesting to review what happened with the Madden-Julian oscillation in the 2014 season

. . . → Read More: Madden-Julian and snow #2

The structure of global climate models

By Gerg, on April 30th, 2015

Strusture of the NASA GISS global climate model

Don’t believe in global climate modelling? Maybe you should actually read something about it before cementing a conclusion. A new paper¹ by Kaitlin Alexander (now at UNSW) and Steve Easterbrook (Toronto) is moderately approachable and gives some interesting insights

. . . → Read More: The structure of global climate models

Madden-Julian and snow

By Gerg, on April 29th, 2015

Also see: Madden-Julian and snow #2

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a fairly regular eastward-propagating pulse of equatorial cloud and rainfall affecting our region, named after the two US meteorologists who identified it in the 1970s. It usually repeats about every 30 to 60 days. While the effect is mostly tropical, it does correlate with our alpine snow in some phases, in ways that may be useful for long-range forecasting.

. . . → Read More: Madden-Julian and snow

An April snow depth?

By Gerg, on April 21st, 2015

Update 2: The models have settled now. Still looking cold, but not much snow.

There’ll be some snow this weekend, probably 20+ cm up high, but will it survive until Snowy Hydro’s usual weekly measure on Thursday 30 April?

. . . → Read More: An April snow depth?

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