23-25 June

Outcome: Zip, nada, biggest system prediction fail in recent memory


The system weakened and slipped away to the south, bringing a bit of tropical rain and mostly above zero temperatures. I’m glad I didn’t forecast half a metre, as some did.


JMA precipitation inferred from satellite imagery (rain!)

BOM surface chart archive


Unfortunately this is now all but dead. We may see 5-10 cm Wednesday night, but that’s about it. I take solace in the fact that esteemed professionals also seriously overestimated this system (calling for 50 cm rather than 20-30).

ECMWF (Levi Cowan)

Original post

Time for some real snow — traditional winter weather action is showing next week, promising at least 20-30 cm.

The better weather models are already fairly well-aligned (click for links):

ECMWF (Levi Cowan)

There is some pre-event rain showing at the moment, but with at least two bursts of cold precipitation following.