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As our world warms, our snowpack thins and our snow season grows shorter, but is that all simple and uniform or is there more to it? Those who have done the work¹² to study and model the physical processes of snow accumulation, consolidation and melt have an answer; perhaps a surprising one: . . . → Read More: Peak timing 
Updated: skewness symbol “κ” replaced by “γ₁”, for consistency. Also see Fitting the Pearson type 3, Pearson type 4 in Excel. The world of statistics seems every bit as bitchy and divided as any field. Bayesians vs frequentists? Nah, I’m talking a hundred years ago and a giant with dubious politics called Karl Pearson. . . . → Read More: Log Pearson type 3 in Excel 
Outcome added… So there’ll be a little snow event next weekend, but don’t get too excited. The circumpolar flow looks very “zonal” at the moment, with the roaring forties roaring and not much in the way of the wiggles in the flow that bring things our way. It’s possible that won’t change much until about mid August, by when that big lobe of activity near South America might have propagated to here. Update (30 July): There’ll be serious wind tomorrow . . . → Read More: 1-2 August 
Update: Corrected for skew… In February 1969 an excited schoolboy from the subtropics visited Australia’s highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko¹. I remember grilling the friends we stayed with in Canberra, “Is there any snow left” (I’d never seen snow of course). In February? That would be unlikely, surely, but they told me there was plenty, as indeed there was. The drifts were still metres deep beside the road as we drove our EH up the narrow dirt track to the top. . . . → Read More: Three metre season? 
“Pity the baby born in Australia today, the day federal Parliament voted to end effective action on climate change … Faced with a difficult, serious policy problem in climate change, policy-makers have squibbed it” … Crikey, 17 July 2014. They sure won’t be skiing here. . . . → Read More: Pity the baby born today… 
Outcome added… OK, big call I know, but my very long range calls have been turning out pretty well so far this season. There is definitely something there in the spaghetti plot. Fuzzy, yes, but powerful. Disturbances like this in distant numerical integrations* can and do dissipate, but if this one doesn’t there’ll be yet more snow, ’roundabout the weekend a fortnight from now. Update (14 July): I’m not giving up on this yet. There is still something there, but . . . → Read More: 26-28 July 
Outcome added… The ensembles are showing a little bulge late next week. There’ll be some weather, but I think not in the league of what we’ve now come to expect from season 2014. Update (11 July): What’s the defining characteristic of Australian snow weather? Rain. Even at high altitudes our winter precipitation snow:rain ratio only averages about 80% (water equivalent). This event is looking like the first major rain event of the season, with rain showing all day Tuesday (15 . . . → Read More: 16-18 July 
While we luxuriate in what’s now shaping as the best Australian snow season since 2000, it’s worth remembering that weather is just the random variations of the climate system … the short term “noise”. One good season does not climate make, any more than one bad one can. . . . → Read More: Weather and climate |
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