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Weather models are saying there’ll be some snow action this weekend, as I’ve been foreshadowing for a fortnight now. Around 20 cm to fairly low levels Thursday night and Friday, with a series of lighter follow-ups through Monday. Not much, but you don’t need much to build skiable cover at this time of year. Outcome: To keep honest, I’ll be posting an outcome assessment against each system prediction I make here. Perisher: 29 mm precipitation to 9:00am 5 . . . → Read More: 5-7 July 2013 
The correlations with the oceanic and other climate variation modes described in the previous post can be used to build a simple statistical prediction model using multiple linear regression: Spencers Creek peak depth (cm) = 1438 – 0.61 x year – 24.8 x AAO + 0.86 x SOI – 13.2 x IOD – 10.4 x PDO – 0.17 x last year’s depth AAO, SOI & IOD are the June-July-August averages and PDO is the 2-year average to August. I also . . . → Read More: Statistical prediction 
This shows correlations of peak season snow depth at Spencers Creek (near Charlotte Pass, from Snowy Hydro Limited) with four well known short-term climate variation modes — three oceanic and one polar. 2012 is shown in bold. The modes are: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the difference between Tahiti and Darwin surface atmospheric pressures expressed as monthly standard deviations x10. It is an indicator of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an east-west quasicycle in equatorial Pacific Ocean surface . . . → Read More: The correlations… 
Full record: And anomalies from the mean curve: And the trends: Peak depth: Season integral depth: Season integral depth is my preferred index of season quality, because it incorporates the effects of season length as well as depth. It’s the area beneath the annual snow depth curve, calculated by adding together the depths for each week of the year. Think of it as the average season depth times the season length (from zero to zero); hence . . . → Read More: The season 2012 wrap-up |
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