Log Pearson type 3 in Excel

LPIII

The world of statistics seems every bit as bitchy and divided as any field. Bayesians vs frequentists? Nah, I’m talking a hundred years ago and a giant with dubious politics called Karl Pearson.

. . . → Read More: Log Pearson type 3 in Excel

1-2 August

Spag14_08_1

So there’ll be a little snow event next weekend, but don’t get too excited.

The circumpolar flow looks very “zonal” at the moment, with the roaring forties roaring and not much in the way of the wiggles in the flow that bring things our way. It’s possible that won’t change much until about mid . . . → Read More: 1-2 August

Three metre season?

Spencers_Creek_probability_3m

Update: Corrected for skew…

In February 1969 an excited schoolboy from the subtropics visited Australia’s highest mountain, Mt Kosciuszko¹. I remember grilling the friends we stayed with in Canberra, “Is there any snow left” (I’d never seen snow of course). In February? That would be unlikely, surely, but they told me there was plenty, as . . . → Read More: Three metre season?

Pity the baby born today...

Future trend of Australian snow depth

Pity the baby born in Australia today, the day federal Parliament voted to end effective action on climate change … Faced with a difficult, serious policy problem in climate change, policy-makers have squibbed it” … Crikey, 17 July 2014.

They sure won’t be skiing here.

. . . → Read More: Pity the baby born today…

26-28 July

Spag14_07_25

Nearly dead…

OK, big call I know, but my very long range calls have been turning out pretty well so far this season. There is definitely something there in the spaghetti plot. Fuzzy, yes, but powerful. Disturbances like this in distant numerical integrations* can and do dissipate, but if this one doesn’t there’ll be yet . . . → Read More: 26-28 July

16-18 July

Spag14_07_16

Outcome added…

The ensembles are showing a little bulge late next week. There’ll be some weather, but I think not in the league of what we’ve now come to expect from season 2014.

Update (11 July): What’s the defining characteristic of Australian snow weather? Rain. Even at high altitudes our winter precipitation snow:rain ratio only . . . → Read More: 16-18 July

Weather and climate

Spencers Creek snow depths for season 2014, from Snowy Hydro Limited

While we luxuriate in what’s now shaping as the best Australian snow season since 2000, it’s worth remembering that weather is just the random variations of the climate system … the short term “noise”. One good season does not climate make, any more than one bad one can.

Spencers Creek snow depths for season . . . → Read More: Weather and climate

9-11 July

Spag14_07_08

Outcome added…

This just keeps on coming. There’s a hint of more activity, midweek, week after next.

Update (27 June): The action is much more diffuse in today’s various computations; lets see what develops. There’s still a hint of something coming in the ECMWF ensemble.

Update 2 (30 June): This one is more solid now, . . . → Read More: 9-11 July

Duuummmmmmmmmmpp

Dump_new

Further updated:

Snowy Hydro have now reported 88 cm net snow depth gain (at Spencers Creek near Charlotte Pass, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo) for the week ending 26 June — not a record but a major dump by our standards. I say >50 cm week-on-week snow depth gain at Spencers Creek is officially . . . → Read More: Duuummmmmmmmmmpp

Extraordinary forecast

BOM_7day_14_06_29

Updated…

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting well over 100 mm of precipitation for our alps across the 8 days to Monday 30 June. Nearly all of that would be snow at the predicted temperatures, for potentially 1 m aggregate snowfall, an extraordinary outcome by Australian standards.

The highest recorded one week depth gain . . . → Read More: Extraordinary forecast