Ok, so why am I late?

Comparing HadISST and ERSSTv4

The snow forecast should be out by now. Well, yes, but…

. . . → Read More: Ok, so why am I late?

Ugly sea surface temperatures

Feb_surface_anim

Local sea surface temperatures — in the Great Australian Bight and northwest Tasman Sea — are the strongest single influence in my snow depth prediction model.

. . . → Read More: Ugly sea surface temperatures

Closing out the 2015 snow depth prediction

Peak snow depth predictions -- post-season data

Last year’s peak snow depth prediction was another triumph, right?  I predicted 141 ± 44 cm and the peak depth came in at 148.8 cm (at Spencers Creek¹, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW).  Well, maybe…

. . . → Read More: Closing out the 2015 snow depth prediction

Midwinter North Pole

US GFS weather model predicted surface air temperature for 06:00z on 30 December 2015

In an extraordinary event precipitated by a huge North Atlantic storm system, the North Pole has just experienced a short burst of above zero air temperature (green in this plot).

. . . → Read More: Midwinter North Pole

Record hottest month

Global_monthly_temps_instrumental_markup

Further updated: All series have now reported.

October 2015 was the hottest month on record globally.  That’s since 1850 — a total of 166 years, or nearly 2000 individual months.

. . . → Read More: Record hottest month

Diesel and NOx

Why do diesel cars emit so much NOx ?  Here’s my answer in 6 tweets … expanded and annotated.  It turns out to be fairly complex.

. . . → Read More: Diesel and NOx

The last gasp (22 September)

Outcome: Nice setup, but dry — less than 10 cm. . . . → Read More: The last gasp (22 September)

Next week (2-5 September)

Outcome: A modest spring fall . . . → Read More: Next week (2-5 September)

An extraordinary system

JAXA_2015_8_24

No, the snow depth peak is not already in; not by a long way. The weather this week has been extraordinary; so far from conventional Australian snow weather as to border on unprecedented.

. . . → Read More: An extraordinary system

Is the peak already in?

Spencers Creek snow depth, from Snowy Hydro

With just 10 cm snowfall claimed at Perisher Valley and Thredbo overnight and a week of warm weather in the offing, is the 2015 snow depth peak already in?

. . . → Read More: Is the peak already in?