Readers will know that I don’t make my peak depth prediction for the Australian snow season until April, when the required parameters become clearer, but I see that Mr Peterson’s prediction for the 2014 Spencers Creek peak depth is in at a generous 201.2 cm.
Peterson’s method users cycles he detects in the Spencers Creek . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction #1
Technical writing rule #303: never, ever use that exclamation thing. Yet there are times when absurdity demands an ugly response. The meme that claims a “pause” in global warming has become so pervasive that even experienced scientists — who ought to know better — have been spouting it¹.
I’m going to show here that recent . . . → Read More: Warming accelerates!
Global temperatures since 1970
One thing I’ve learned in 30 years working with real climate and hydrological data is to always check the maximum available temporal resolution¹. If there’s daily data, don’t just look at monthly averages. If you’ve got monthlies, don’t just rely on annual data. Doing so destroys information, even when . . . → Read More: What pause?
Snowy Hydro Limited kindly publishes the full snow depth records for three of their measurement sites on-line:
Spencers Creek, at 1830 m elevation, near Charlotte Pass Deep Creek, at 1620 m elevation, near Cabramurra, and Three Mile Dam, at 1460 m elevation, near Kiandra.
Together these cover the range of snowpack elevations and show how . . . → Read More: Adding Three Mile Dam
After a hiatus due to the US government shutdown, PIOMAS for the annual northern sea ice minimum is finally out.
Here’s an update of my earlier post (may need a browser refresh):
PIOMAS tracks the total volume of sea ice floating on the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. September generally sees the end of the . . . → Read More: PIOMAS 2013
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Bush Telegraph radio program reported at length today on the future of Australian ski resorts. The story by reporter Greg Muller is built around a “secret” update to the 2003 Hennessy report I wrote about back in July. The new report* was funded by the Victorian government and completed late last . . . → Read More: The secret Hennessy report update
Snow tonight; maybe as much as 15 cm. And there’s still a Main Range base to hold it. Here’s Charlotte Pass courtesy Airlan; the Snowy Hydro Spencers Creek measuring course is near the right skyline:
No resort reported. From the automatic weather stations looks like 5-15 cm fell up high; nothing elsewhere.
. . . → Read More: Last gasp blast
The big melt is underway, a month ahead of usual. And Deep Creek at ~1620 m has already hit zero snow depth, after managing to beat the average in just one week this year — by a whole 3 cm back in mid May.
On the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Q&A program on Monday night an . . . → Read More: Melt accelerates
The 2013 Spencers Creek peak snow depth is in at 185.9 cm on 26 August. Time to check on the prediction model.
My pre-season prediction from back in April was 170 ± 50 cm, so that’s a tick. Not quite so fast though. My method uses multiple linear regression with a range of parameters with . . . → Read More: Prediction vs performance
PIOMAS tracks the total volume of sea ice floating on the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. September generally sees the end of the melt season, so it’s time to see how 2013 went. For those paying attention, this year has been something of a breather in a breakneck decline. Are we perhaps seeing the beginnings . . . → Read More: PIOMAS update