Err ... what he said.

Fareweel to a’ our Scottish fame, Fareweel our ancient glory;

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Season 2014 peak depth

Future trend of Australian snow depth

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Ok, time to call it. There’s now no realistic chance that the 168.5 cm peak snow depth recorded on 24 July will be exceeded. That’s as measured by Snowy Hydro Limited at Spencers Creek, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW, Australia, at around 1830 m elevation.

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17-18 September

Outcome added…

Another little event is showing this week, with maybe some actual snow this time. Needed.

Fred

Fred at Frog, late 1970s

He died high on the west ridge of Everest, 30 years ago next month. Fred touched all kinds of people in surprising ways that I’ve gradually discovered over the years. My guide, my inspiration, my rock in a scary world … but not just mine. . . . → Read More: Fred

10-12 September

Spag14_09_12

Outcome added…

August has been ridiculously slow, but with the change of month we seem to be slipping straight back into a standard 7-10 day winter pattern. There’s now a pretty clear repeat event to next week’s, due late in the week following

. . . → Read More: 10-12 September

Season in review

BOM14_06_24

Update: Added outcome for 2-4 September system

Our snow season is far from over, but the big melt will soon start. Now’s a good time to reflect on what we’ve seen so far, with archive charts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology

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Understanding evaporation #4: climate change

Annual_pan_evaporation-Australia

One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #3

A warmer climate must mean more evaporation, a drier continent and more drought? Well, yes, that’s pretty much the prediction, but unfortunately the observed response of evaporation to climate change has long been a bit of hole in the story — a real one, unlike all that manufactured tosh.

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2-4 September

Spag14_09_02

Outcome added…

After a very long hiatus, it looks like there may be a “real” snow event early in September. By that I don’t mean a big one, just one deriving from the typical winter meanders in the polar circulation.

Update (27 August): This is now up on BOM ACCESS-G and ECMWF

. . . → Read More: 2-4 September

August 17-18 event ... dip

How did I miss this? Like many others I expected a rain event, but as with the 15-16 June system earlier this year, this one delivered marginal wet snow to Perisher Valley and Thredbo (but little to Victoria). These upper atmosphere driven systems can be tough to pick.

. . . → Read More: August 17-18 event … dip

Understanding evaporation #3: potential rate

Australian_point_potential_evapotranspiration

One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #4

Talk to a meteorologist about how to measure evaporation and you’ll probably be told not to bother because it can be reliably estimated from other parameters. Therein lies a simplification, an overstatement and perhaps a cop-out.

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