7-8 June

Spag_5_6_2016

It’s a long way out, but there’s a nice little lobe building on the Spag plot for early June, giving an outside chance of some proper snow on the ground for a long weekend opening. It’s a few years since we’ve seen one of those.

Strategic Senate voting

The new Australian senate voting systems offers an opportunity to vote strategically with significant effect, and without much risk of making a mistake and wasting your vote. It’s worth thinking about.

. . . → Read More: Strategic Senate voting

27-28 May

We’ll I’ll be; some actual snow in the offing for the weekend. Don’t get too excited — not much, and on bare ground (tonight’s will be negligible).

Season 2016 snow depth prediction

Prediction_v_performance_2016

Yes, very very late, but here we go. For those who just want the answer, the Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2016 will be 159 ± 44 cm.

. . . → Read More: Season 2016 snow depth prediction

Ok, so why am I late?

Comparing HadISST and ERSSTv4

The snow forecast should be out by now. Well, yes, but…

. . . → Read More: Ok, so why am I late?

Ugly sea surface temperatures

Feb_surface_anim

Local sea surface temperatures — in the Great Australian Bight and northwest Tasman Sea — are the strongest single influence in my snow depth prediction model.

. . . → Read More: Ugly sea surface temperatures

Closing out the 2015 snow depth prediction

Peak snow depth predictions -- post-season data

Last year’s peak snow depth prediction was another triumph, right?  I predicted 141 ± 44 cm and the peak depth came in at 148.8 cm (at Spencers Creek¹, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW).  Well, maybe…

. . . → Read More: Closing out the 2015 snow depth prediction

Midwinter North Pole

US GFS weather model predicted surface air temperature for 06:00z on 30 December 2015

In an extraordinary event precipitated by a huge North Atlantic storm system, the North Pole has just experienced a short burst of above zero air temperature (green in this plot).

. . . → Read More: Midwinter North Pole

Record hottest month

Global_monthly_temps_instrumental_markup

Further updated: All series have now reported.

October 2015 was the hottest month on record globally.  That’s since 1850 — a total of 166 years, or nearly 2000 individual months.

. . . → Read More: Record hottest month

Diesel and NOx

Why do diesel cars emit so much NOx ?  Here’s my answer in 6 tweets … expanded and annotated.  It turns out to be fairly complex.

. . . → Read More: Diesel and NOx