2-3 August

GFS for Tuesday morning


About 10 cm snowfall; a little more in Victoria. And of course, quite substantial falls in the Blue Mountains and points west as the system moved north.

. . . → Read More: 2-3 August

24-27 July

2016 Spencers Creek snow depth gain and loss


So yes, we got back above the pre-melt depth; in fact well above: 143.8 cm on Wednesday 27th vs 95.1 cm the previous Tuesday

. . . → Read More: 24-27 July

12-13 July

...And for Tuesday

Models agree there’ll be quite a bit of rain Sunday-Monday from the tropical feed ahead of the low, then a nice cold winter blast Tuesday-Wednesday. We should see another net gain in snow depth at Thursday’s measure.

. . . → Read More: 12-13 July

5-6 July


Pretty much as per the update. It looks like there might have been nearly 20 cm at Perisher Valley on Tuesday, then 25 mm of rain Wednesday-Thursday. Victoria looks similar or a little wetter.

. . . → Read More: 5-6 July

30 June - 1 July

BOM ACCESS-R for Thursday night


About 15cm in NSW, more in Victoria.

On the board, with a bang

Spencers Creek snow depth, from Snowy Hydro

And the main event is still coming.

. . . → Read More: On the board, with a bang

Season starter ... at last

Spencers Creek season start

Update (22 June): Tuesday night came through (with good accumulations down to below 1600 m, not 1800 m), so we’re looking forward to seeing a number from you tomorrow, Hydro guys.

. . . → Read More: Season starter … at last

23-25 June


Outcome (27 June):

There was about 90 cm of snowfall in aggregate for this event on my best estimate, a bit under half of which came with the lead-up system starting Tuesday night … which I barely rated initially. Ho hum; wrong again.

It’s interesting to look at where the 500 hPa spaghetti plot finished up, for future future calibration. The blue line did not reach the alps:

Spag plot for Friday morning

  (Note that the blue contours . . . → Read More: 23-25 June

Arctic sea ice update

Arctic sea ice extent, from the US NSIDC

So far this year the extent of sea ice floating on the northern polar ocean has been off-the-chart low … again. It’s currently about a million square kilometres below the extraordinary record melt year we saw in 2012.

. . . → Read More: Arctic sea ice update

8-10 June



This fizzed, obviously, except many places seem to have scored about 10 cm of snow on the tail, which is better than a kick in the guts.

. . . → Read More: 8-10 June