On the board, with a bang

Spencers Creek snow depth, from Snowy Hydro

And the main event is still coming.

. . . → Read More: On the board, with a bang

Season starter ... at last

Spencers Creek season start

Update (22 June): Tuesday night came through (with good accumulations down to below 1600 m, not 1800 m), so we’re looking forward to seeing a number from you tomorrow, Hydro guys.

. . . → Read More: Season starter … at last

23-25 June

GFS_23-25_06_2016

Update #3 (21 June):

Ok, so tonight has clearly surprised on the cold — and therefore white — side, with upwards of 15 cm of snow already on the ground at Perisher Valley (at 10:00pm, although the coldest burst has probably passed). Surprised me that is; BOM forecasters called it pretty much spot on. It now looks like there’s an aggregate half a metre in this event, with the first snow depth measurement of the year on Thursday morning likely . . . → Read More: 23-25 June

Arctic sea ice update

Arctic sea ice extent, from the US NSIDC

So far this year the extent of sea ice floating on the northern polar ocean has been off-the-chart low … again. It’s currently about a million square kilometres below the extraordinary record melt year we saw in 2012.

. . . → Read More: Arctic sea ice update

8-10 June

71075_rain

Outcome:

This fizzed, obviously, except many places seem to have scored about 10 cm of snow on the tail, which is better than a kick in the guts.

. . . → Read More: 8-10 June

Tactical Senate voting

Sample new senate ballot, showing voter-allocated above-the-line preferences

The new Australian senate voting system offers an opportunity to vote tactically with significant effect, and without much risk of making a mistake and wasting your vote. It’s worth thinking about.

. . . → Read More: Tactical Senate voting

27-28 May

We’ll I’ll be; some actual snow in the offing for the weekend. Don’t get too excited — not much, and on bare ground (tonight’s will be negligible).

. . . → Read More: 27-28 May

Season 2016 snow depth prediction

Prediction_v_performance_2016

Yes, very very late, but here we go. For those who just want the answer, the Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2016 will be 159 ± 44 cm.

. . . → Read More: Season 2016 snow depth prediction

Ok, so why am I late?

Comparing HadISST and ERSSTv4

The snow forecast should be out by now. Well, yes, but…

. . . → Read More: Ok, so why am I late?

Ugly sea surface temperatures

Feb_surface_anim

Local sea surface temperatures — in the Great Australian Bight and northwest Tasman Sea — are the strongest single influence in my snow depth prediction model.

. . . → Read More: Ugly sea surface temperatures