Sunspots and snow

Bear with me here. I come from a place with a long history of nutty sunspot-based weather prediction, so I’m well aware of the pitfalls. But our sun really is a very slightly variable star, and aspects of our climate do seem to very slightly vary with its output — particularly snow cover.

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The frequency of 'records'

If you begin monitoring some variable thing over time, initially you’re going to see lots of new extremes — new record highs, for example. As your dataset grows, the frequency of new ‘records’ should decline sharply. If the overall system behavior is static, new records rapidly become very rare indeed, governed by the statistics of the variation. A feature of the 165-year long global temperature series in recent years is that new records highs have not been rare at all.

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2014 the warmest ... again

Bloomberg monthly NOAA NCDC animation

Update: Added note on Berkeley Earth.

Both the NASA GISTEMP and NOAA NCDC global temperature series have updated for December, confirming that the year just completed was once again the warmest on record. That’s since 1880 when those series start, but really since at least 1850 when the other instrumental series begin

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