Season 2014 snow depth prediction #5

One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #3, #4

It’s June, so the parameter estimates have firmed; time to update. Last time the prediction was 170 ± 45 cm.

. . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction #5

Season 2014 snow depth prediction #3

One of a series, also see editions: #1, #2, #4, #5

Updated…

OK, here’s how the new prediction model including southern sea surface temperatures goes:

 

The correlation coefficient rises to a healthy 44% (the standard error falls to 47 cm). The new model really only misses badly around Pinatubo1 (1991 & 1992) and the 2006 wipe-out.

Basis:

My previous model used these parameters:

calendar year, to model the downtrend winter average2 Antarctic Oscillation3 (AAO) winter average Southern Oscillation . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction, #3