One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #3, #4
It’s June, so the parameter estimates have firmed; time to update. Last time the prediction was 170 ± 45 cm.
. . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction #5
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One of a series, also see editions: #1, #2, #4, #5 Updated… OK, here’s how the new prediction model including southern sea surface temperatures goes:
The correlation coefficient rises to a healthy 44% (the standard error falls to 47 cm). The new model really only misses badly around Pinatubo1 (1991 & 1992) and the 2006 wipe-out. Basis: My previous model used these parameters: calendar year, to model the downtrend winter average2 Antarctic Oscillation3 (AAO) winter average Southern Oscillation . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction, #3 |
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