Update: Added outcome for 2-4 September system
Our snow season is far from over, but the big melt will soon start. Now’s a good time to reflect on what we’ve seen so far, with archive charts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:
Fall #1: 14-16 June
After a near-record warm May, this was the rather late season starter for NSW (Victoria dipped). The resorts claimed up to 30 cm snowfall.
My call: Made from 19 days out(!!); event came in a couple of days late; my update missed the isolated 14 June NSW fall.
Fall #2: 23-25 June
This was the big one; up to 1.2 m of aggregate snowfall for a net gain of 88 cm at Spencers Creek, the eleventh-highest weekly gain on record (interpolated 7-day gains).
My call: Made from onset-6 days; timing ok; I foreshadowed the possibility of a dump from 4 days out, but didn’t really see the very large fall coming until 22 June (in a separate post).
Fall #3: 28-30 June
A repeat system brought another very substantial fall; at least 50 cm of aggregate snowfall. The week-on-week gain at Spencers Creek was a slightly disappointing 28 cm, probably due to consolidation of the previous week’s dump underneath.
My call: Made from onset-7 days; most unusually the initial timing was about 1.5 days too late (corrected in updates); event scale pretty good.
Fall #4: 9-11 July
Yet another nice fall, aggregating up to about 70 cm counting the wet little pre-event on 5 July.
My call: Made from onset-14 days; call timing 1 day early from 14 days; event scale about right.
Fall #5: 16-18 July
This was a decent fall too, but not of the scale of the previous three. One resort claimed a dubious total snowfall of 50 cm, but the weekly depth gain was a small fraction of that.
My call: Made from onset-8 days; timing good. The pre-event on 14-15 July was not nearly as wet as I expected early on — something of a theme with little wandering lows this season.
Fall #6: 1-2 August
This small snow event delivered a cold and windy 20 cm fall.
My call: Made from 6 days out; timing good; scale good.
Fall #7: 17-18 August
This was an unusual upper-atmosphere system that delivered a surprise 20 cm of very wet snow to higher elevations in NSW.
My call: Completely missed it, expecting rain.
Fall #8: 2-4 September
A traditional, vigorous cold front. Perisher Valley resort claimed 20 cm snowfall off about 30 mm of precipitation, while Falls Creek claimed just 6 cm.
My call: Made from 10 days out; timing good, but overcooked it. Much weaker than expected; called for follow-up fizzled.
So that’s it; just eight snowfalls made this season — one of the better ones in recent years. In my experience that count is far from unusual. Our snow season is brief and fragile.
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