Season 2014 peak depth

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Ok, time to call it. There’s now no realistic chance that the 168.5 cm peak snow depth recorded on 24 July will be exceeded. That’s as measured by Snowy Hydro Limited at Spencers Creek, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW, Australia, at around 1830 m elevation.

That peak is unprecedented in two ways. First, it’s bang on my preseason prediction of 168 ± 45 cm, which I’ll take (more on that later). Second, it’s the earliest peak in our 61 years of recorded snow depths; half a week earlier than the previous earliest peak, recorded on 28 July 2011:

Spencers Creek peak snow depth timing

Spencers Creek peak snow depth timing

I wrote this year about the effect of climate change on peak snow depth timing. Earlier and earlier is the expectation.


The 2014 peak fits neatly into the long term downtrend and future projection. It’s like watching paint dry, yes, but once again the new data point is completely consistent with both. If you’re still expecting this thing to turn around somehow, it may be fair to ask … starting when, exactly?

Peak depth trend

Spencers Creek peak snow depth trend


Future trend of Australian snow depth

Spencers Creek snow depth future