Is the peak already in?

With just 10 cm snowfall claimed at Perisher Valley and Thredbo overnight and a week of warm weather in the offing, is the 2015 snow depth peak already in? That would be the 131.5 cm recorded by Snowy Hydro on 12 August (at Spencers Creek, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW).

Spencers Creek snow depth, from Snowy Hydro

Spencers Creek snow depth, from Snowy Hydro

There’s a chance that this Thursday’s measure will show a small net gain at the high-altitude Spencers Creek site (1830 m) from the overnight snowfall and perhaps a bit the night before, but with emphasis on small. A few centimetres is all that’s possible. And the week ahead looks horrible on the weather models — first a big high, then a prolonged warm, wet northerly feed. But there’ll probably be some light follow-up snow early next week, when the GEFS spaghetti plot has a weak polar lobe passing:

After that, nothing much is showing until September, and these days it’s getting tough to find good September snow systems. The spag plot is presently showing a somewhat stronger polar lobe approaching in the first week; perhaps that’ll build:

If you want to ski some more this season, don’t leave it too long.