Worst snow season start ever?

No, this one isn’t and probably won’t be; the coming week’s snowfalls should see to that. But it is well in the league. Judging the ‘worst ever season start’ turns out to be not quite as trivial as it seems.

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Arctic sea ice update

PIOMAs northern sea ice volume

It’s a while since I’ve updated this graph because very little has changed

. . . → Read More: Arctic sea ice update

2017 snow depth prediction

TL;DR: The Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2017 will be 163 ± 44 cm.

. . . → Read More: 2017 snow depth prediction

Season 2016 roundup

Deep Creek snow depth

The 2016 Australian snow season was a good one by modern standards, even though the peak snowpack depth of 170.5 cm¹ was well below the long term (62-year) average of 197 cm. The season was late to start — the first measured depth was on 23 June — and very late to finish (last depth 22 November). Ongoing snowfalls up high through the second half of the season kept the cover and surface in better than usual shape … but one of . . . → Read More: Season 2016 roundup

Snyder and the global temperature graph

A paper in this week’s Nature by Caroline Snyder at Stanford provides a fresh attempt at estimating global average surface temperatures across the Pleistocene (her estimates cover the last 2 million years).

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Th' th' th' th' th' that's all folks

Update (26 September):

This one’s looking quite interesting now on the Bureau of Meteorology’s 4-day chart, which of course is drawn off the excellent European ECMWF model (for historical reasons…).

. . . → Read More: Th’ th’ th’ th’ th’ that’s all folks

2-3 August


About 10 cm snowfall; a little more in Victoria. And of course, quite substantial falls in the Blue Mountains and points west as the system moved north.

. . . → Read More: 2-3 August

24-27 July


So yes, we got back above the pre-melt depth; in fact well above: 143.8 cm on Wednesday 27th vs 95.1 cm the previous Tuesday

. . . → Read More: 24-27 July

12-13 July

Models agree there’ll be quite a bit of rain Sunday-Monday from the tropical feed ahead of the low, then a nice cold winter blast Tuesday-Wednesday. We should see another net gain in snow depth at Thursday’s measure.

. . . → Read More: 12-13 July

5-6 July


Pretty much as per the update. It looks like there might have been nearly 20 cm at Perisher Valley on Tuesday, then 25 mm of rain Wednesday-Thursday. Victoria looks similar or a little wetter.

. . . → Read More: 5-6 July