Another 2006?

Are we on track to come in below our worst season ever, 2006?

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Probably not … 2006 was an El Niño year, with the June-July-August average SOI of -10.  This year will be neutral (SOI near zero).  2006 also had a mildly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (bad for snow); this year it should be slightly negative.

There’s enough moisture around to expect some decent falls.  We just might have to wait a bit.

Update (20/7):  We still haven’t clearly beaten 2006 even if the current event manages a 50 cm gain (unlikely).  What’s surprising is that that is even possible in such a wet year.  June-July precipitation at Thredbo Village (perhaps the most secure mountain record) is already over 450 mm and looks like beating 500 mm.  June-July 2006 was 175 mm, and June-July 1982 (the previous worst season) was just 78 mm.  In the past, wipe-out seasons have been drought years.

I still think we’ll easily beat 2006, though my pre-season prediction of 170 cm is starting to look difficult.

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