9-11 July

Outcome added…

This just keeps on coming. There’s a hint of more activity, midweek, week after next.

Update (27 June): The action is much more diffuse in today’s various computations; lets see what develops. There’s still a hint of something coming in the ECMWF ensemble.

Update 2 (30 June): This one is more solid now, and drifting later as long range system forecasts generally do. And the little low passing through on the weekend has firmed up in both ECMWF and BOM ACCESS, and is looking (relatively, for the pattern) very cold … add a bonus 20 cm Friday night – Saturday. (Err, what was that peak depth prediction again?)

Update 3 (4 July): It’s clear now that this event has drifted a full day later than when first called two weeks out — I’ve changed the dates to 9-11 July. BOM ACCESS and ECMWF are showing rain Wednesday (9 July) with snow not arriving until Wednesday night, but there’s a chance of that extending intermittently through Thursday into Friday.

The little low this weekend is pretty secure now: ~20 cm of wettish snow; higher levels only. That is on ECMWF and BOM ACCESS; GFS has it far too warm for snow, but the US model has a poor close-range prediction record for our snow weather.

Update 4 (8 July): Tick the little low; ~20 cm at Perisher Valley. The main snow now looks to be arriving earlier, about midday Wednesday, and the second front on Friday has firmed up, with snow possibly extending into Saturday. This is no dump, but a substantial fall nevertheless.



A nice fall. Perisher Valley resort claimed an aggregate 48 cm for the main event plus 20 cm for the weekend low. Snowy Hydro measured on Wednesday this week for a net loss of 2 cm at Spencers Creek due to melt / consolidation, despite the wet little weekend fall. That means all of the main fall from this system will be in next week’s measure … but, of course, that’s likely to include the effects of next week’s early rain.