28-30 June

Outcome added…

Did I say 7-day winter pattern? A hint of more snowy weather is showing early in the week after next.

Update (22 June): Shifted dates backwards one day. There’s something there, but the timing is still diffuse; uncertain.

Update 2 (23 June): Up on ECMWF and BOM ACCESS now. (They don’t yet agree; the higher resolution EC model tends to be more reliable than ACCESS-G at this range.) This system now looks to be arriving even earlier — midday Saturday 28th. Don’t be misled by the current ruckus; this second one is a major system too, with big falls likely. Is my season peak depth prediction already in danger?

Update 3 (25 June): Now earlier still, with minor pre-frontal rain arriving Friday night. Nothing serious though; it should be snowing by Saturday morning based on BOM’s ACCESS-R model. (It’s interesting that this system has propagated strongly backwards in the various model predictions. Nearly all our systems tend move the other way in long range computer modelling; possibly the single most significant winter forecast deficiency of the current crop of models.)


More dumpage. This was not quite in the league of 23-24 June, but a substantial snow weather system nevertheless. We don’t yet know whether it will qualify officially as another dump (>50 cm week-on-week gain), but that seems likely subject to the coming warm midweek melt and consolidation. Update: Didn’t make it; the measured week-on-week gain of 27.8 cm may have been degraded by heavy consolidation of the underlying deep fresh snow from the previous week.