2-4 September

Outcome added…

After a very long hiatus, it looks like there may be a “real” snow event early in September.  By that I don’t mean a big one, just one deriving from the typical winter meanders in the polar circulation.

Update (27 August): This is now up on BOM ACCESS-G and ECMWF (they don’t yet agree). It’s looking ok so far … no dump, but definitely some “real” snow. There’s a chance of a follow-up later in the week (4-5 September).

Update 2 (29 August): This season is not over; looks like a snowy week coming next week. There’s currently some fairly heavy pre-event rain showing Monday evening, but the ground should be nice and white by morning. A modest follow-up is firming for Thursday – Friday (4-5 September).


This was a nice traditional, vigorous cold front. Pre-frontal rain doesn’t seem to have been as bad as I expected. Perisher Valley resort claimed 20 cm snowfall off about 30 mm of precipitation, while Falls Creek claimed just 6 cm. There was definitely a difference this time, but by a factor of three? (Hint: Check the Spencers Creek depth tomorrow). The hoped for follow-up looks to have fizzled (models have the little upper atmosphere system drifting north and weakening).