4-5 September 2013

The famous spag plot of the NCEP ensemble of the GFS model is back on line, and  is  was suggesting significant action around these dates after some pretty warm weather next week.  The season peak is close.  (The peak depth at Spencers Creek is usually in the last week of August or the first week of September.  The latest peak on record was 206.5 cm on 5 October 1971.)

Update (28/8): This system has drifted later and all but died — the perils of calling early.  There’s still a chance of something Wednesday night / Thursday morning (dates updated).

Update 2 (30/8): This is looking worse still, all rain. Winter now starts late and ends early, and that isn’t going to improve any time soon. (Atmospheric CO2 lifetimes are kinda long. Around a third of this year’s increase will still be there in 10,000 years.)

We already have our 2013 Spencers Creek peak depth: 185.9 cm on 26 August.

Outcome: Rain as per update 2. Score 2/10.

5 September 2013

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