Ok, so why am I late?

The snow forecast should be out by now. Well, yes, but…

As you know, my Australian snow depth prediction method depends strongly on local sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and those have spiked horribly of late:

Recent sea surface temperatures

Recent sea surface temperatures


My problem is that I need to forecast (guess) what those might be in June, July and August. That’s complicated by the fact that the data series I use, HadISST from the Hadley Centre in the UK, is tardy to update, generally running at least two months behind real time (at the moment it’s still at January). I’m currently considering switching to the latest series from NOAA in the US, ERSSTv4, which updates much more promptly.

But, of course, they’re not the same (each has support, there is no obvious ‘better’):

Comparing HadISST and ERSSTv4

Comparing HadISST and ERSSTv4


…Which of course means I need to sort out the data source (horrible) and re-do the correlations and the modelling. Patience.

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