Outcome: Each of these (Thursday and Saturday) delivered about 5 cm, but with heavy rain preceding the snow on Saturday (60 mm at Perisher Valley). Miserable.
Thursday has been bobbing up and down on various models for a while now. Some are looking very interesting — if the current (27 July) US GFS model scenario were to come off, we could be looking at another substantial fall. I think the European ECMWF model is more realistic at this range. It has a pretty vigorous cold front clipping the alps Thursday night (below), which could bring a sneaky 15 cm (there I go again…). Then there should be another similar on Saturday, before the main event arrives Sunday night. This miserable season has definitely turned; I’m beginning to fear for my pre-season peak snow depth prediction (141 ± 44 cm).
 ECMWF precipitation for Thursday night, 30 July |
 ECMWF for Saturday morning |
Keep your nerve on the peak snow depth projection though I do hope it is exceeded. However for the health of the ski industry I believe that the integral (snow depth x days) is the parameter that really counts. Richardoz.