Season 2014 snow depth prediction #5

One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #3, #4

It’s June, so the parameter estimates have firmed; time to update. Last time the prediction was 170 ± 45 cm.

. . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction #5

Season 2014 snow depth prediction #3

One of a series, also see editions: #1, #2, #4, #5

Updated…

OK, here’s how the new prediction model including southern sea surface temperatures goes:

 

The correlation coefficient rises to a healthy 44% (the standard error falls to 47 cm). The new model really only misses badly around Pinatubo1 (1991 & 1992) and the 2006 wipe-out.

Basis:

My previous model used these parameters:

calendar year, to model the downtrend winter average2 Antarctic Oscillation3 (AAO) winter average Southern Oscillation . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction, #3

Season 2014 snow depth prediction #2

One of a series, also see editions: #1, #3, #4, #5

While we wait for the prediction parameters to firm up (El Niño is now even money), it’s worth checking what a naive statistical prediction for 2014 looks like. By naive I mean one that ignores influences external to the snow depth data (like El Niño), not one with weak statistics.

The obvious approach, used in the plot above, is to treat our 60 years of snow depth data (from . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction, #2