First snow

Outcome added

Why not, it’s May. Looks like snow Friday night, maybe as far north as Armidale, though if the pattern on several models holds the alps might miss the best of it (I think it will shift). [Update: It hasn’t shifted; models were spot-on 3 days out. Alps will get snow though. Go you good thing…]

The more interesting question is will enough settle to last through to Thursday for our first depth measurement of the season? That’s likely I think; there might even be a little follow-up before then. I hope the guys have found the gear, made sure all the bits are working, printed some data sheets, updated HSE and are ready to go.

Sea surface temperatures in the Bight remain much cooler than the unprecedented highs of recent years, after plunging in December. The best chance for snow this year might be in the early to mid season, given the likelihood of an El Niño developing mid year, and perhaps of the recent SST drop retracing.

 

Outcome:

Dip.  Cold outburst too far west.  Should have believed models; seldom wrong now at 72 hours.

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