First snow #2+

Outcome added…

A fair way out, and a little late (I said week ending 14 June way back on May 26), but it looks like there’s a decent chance of snow early next week.  All three models I follow have something showing, though they sure don’t agree.

Update: This is going to be marginal. After a wet weekend, it looks like the cold doesn’t arrive until Monday, and of course by then most of the moisture has passed. ECMWF and BOM ACCESS have converged; GFS has the Tasman low moving off too quickly.

Outcome: Well we’re off the mark at least. Victoria was very marginal as per the update; NSW fluked a decent fall Saturday night against the progged temperatures, then got a nice follow-up last night (~10 cm).

Saturday night – should have been too warm, but wasn’t (for NSW).

Monday night

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