2017 snow depth prediction

TL;DR: The Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2017 will be 163 ± 44 cm.

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Season 2016 roundup

Deep Creek snow depth

The 2016 Australian snow season was a good one by modern standards, even though the peak snowpack depth of 170.5 cm¹ was well below the long term (62-year) average of 197 cm. The season was late to start — the first measured depth was on 23 June — and very late to finish (last depth 22 November). Ongoing snowfalls up high through the second half of the season kept the cover and surface in better than usual shape … but one of . . . → Read More: Season 2016 roundup

Snyder and the global temperature graph

A paper in this week’s Nature by Caroline Snyder at Stanford provides a fresh attempt at estimating global average surface temperatures across the Pleistocene (her estimates cover the last 2 million years).

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Th' th' th' th' th' that's all folks

Update (26 September):

This one’s looking quite interesting now on the Bureau of Meteorology’s 4-day chart, which of course is drawn off the excellent European ECMWF model (for historical reasons…).

. . . → Read More: Th’ th’ th’ th’ th’ that’s all folks

2-3 August

Outcome:

About 10 cm snowfall; a little more in Victoria. And of course, quite substantial falls in the Blue Mountains and points west as the system moved north.

. . . → Read More: 2-3 August

24-27 July

Outcome:

So yes, we got back above the pre-melt depth; in fact well above: 143.8 cm on Wednesday 27th vs 95.1 cm the previous Tuesday

. . . → Read More: 24-27 July

12-13 July

Models agree there’ll be quite a bit of rain Sunday-Monday from the tropical feed ahead of the low, then a nice cold winter blast Tuesday-Wednesday. We should see another net gain in snow depth at Thursday’s measure.

. . . → Read More: 12-13 July

5-6 July

Outcome:

Pretty much as per the update. It looks like there might have been nearly 20 cm at Perisher Valley on Tuesday, then 25 mm of rain Wednesday-Thursday. Victoria looks similar or a little wetter.

. . . → Read More: 5-6 July

30 June - 1 July

Outcome:

About 15cm in NSW, more in Victoria.

On the board, with a bang

And the main event is still coming.

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