2018 snow depth prediction

TL;DR: The Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2018 will be 201 ± 42 cm.

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Mikado in MuseScore

This is a work-in-progress, probably never to be finished.

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Spencers Creek snow depth prediction model - mark V

As you may know, for many years I have attempted to predict the season peak snow depth at Spencers Creek¹, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW, using a simple multiple regression model based on well-known climatic modes and influences.

  It’s time for another rework. I’ve hit the thing fairly hard this time — for a relatively small improvement in absolute performance but I think a substantial gain in structure and understanding. As often occurs with such things, the . . . → Read More: Spencers Creek snow depth prediction model – mark V

Season 2017 roundup

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After one of the worst season starts on record (fifth-worst, on my assessment) 2017 morphed into a ripper, with the biggest high-altitude peak snow depth in 17 years

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Adding Copernicus

I’ve added the Copernicus ‘ERA-Interim’ global temperature series to all of the global temperature plots.

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Near real-time Yahoo stock quotes in Excel

Updated — now includes historical prices.

You may know that Yahoo Finance has for a long time provided near real-time global stock quotes via its website and via a web API service, which many have used as a convenient source for Excel data. There have been lots of VBA implementations and even a direct spreadsheet formula implementation (no VBA).

Unfortunately the API service was abused to the extent that some even purported to sell trading applications based around it (go . . . → Read More: Near real-time Yahoo stock quotes in Excel

Updating the global temperature graphs

The fuss recently about a fairly minor fix to the fairly ordinary estimate of global temperature change provided by satellite remote sensing has prompted some long-overdue action from me. I’ve updated and I hope improved all the global temperature graphs

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Worst snow season start ever?

No, this one isn’t and probably won’t be; the coming week’s snowfalls should see to that. But it is well in the league. Judging the ‘worst ever season start’ turns out to be not quite as trivial as it seems.

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Arctic sea ice update

PIOMAs northern sea ice volume

It’s a while since I’ve updated this graph because very little has changed

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2017 snow depth prediction

TL;DR: The Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2017 will be 163 ± 44 cm.

. . . → Read More: 2017 snow depth prediction