Season starter ... at last

Spencers Creek season start

Update (22 June): Tuesday night came through (with good accumulations down to below 1600 m, not 1800 m), so we’re looking forward to seeing a number from you tomorrow, Hydro guys.

. . . → Read More: Season starter … at last

23-25 June

Outcome (27 June):

There was about 90 cm of snowfall in aggregate for this event on my best estimate, a bit under half of which came with the lead-up system starting Tuesday night … which I barely rated initially. Ho hum; wrong again.

It’s interesting to look at where the 500 hPa spaghetti plot finished up, for future future calibration. The blue line did not reach the alps:

Spag plot for Friday morning

  (Note that the blue contours . . . → Read More: 23-25 June

Arctic sea ice update

So far this year the extent of sea ice floating on the northern polar ocean has been off-the-chart low … again. It’s currently about a million square kilometres below the extraordinary record melt year we saw in 2012.

. . . → Read More: Arctic sea ice update

8-10 June

Outcome:

This fizzed, obviously, except many places seem to have scored about 10 cm of snow on the tail, which is better than a kick in the guts.

. . . → Read More: 8-10 June

Tactical Senate voting

The new Australian senate voting system offers an opportunity to vote tactically with significant effect, and without much risk of making a mistake and wasting your vote. It’s worth thinking about.

. . . → Read More: Tactical Senate voting

27-28 May

We’ll I’ll be; some actual snow in the offing for the weekend. Don’t get too excited — not much, and on bare ground (tonight’s will be negligible).

. . . → Read More: 27-28 May

Season 2016 snow depth prediction

Yes, very very late, but here we go. For those who just want the answer, the Spencers Creek¹ peak snow depth for 2016 will be 159 ± 44 cm.

. . . → Read More: Season 2016 snow depth prediction

Ok, so why am I late?

The snow forecast should be out by now. Well, yes, but…

. . . → Read More: Ok, so why am I late?

Ugly sea surface temperatures

Local sea surface temperatures — in the Great Australian Bight and northwest Tasman Sea — are the strongest single influence in my snow depth prediction model.

. . . → Read More: Ugly sea surface temperatures

Closing out the 2015 snow depth prediction

Last year’s peak snow depth prediction was another triumph, right?  I predicted 141 ± 44 cm and the peak depth came in at 148.8 cm (at Spencers Creek¹, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW).  Well, maybe…

. . . → Read More: Closing out the 2015 snow depth prediction