Are we on track to come in below our worst season ever, 2006?
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Probably not … 2006 was an El Niño year, with the June-July-August average SOI of -10. This year will be neutral (SOI near zero). 2006 also had a mildly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (bad for snow); this year it should be slightly negative.
There’s enough moisture around to expect some decent falls. We just might have to wait a bit.
Update (20/7): We still haven’t clearly beaten 2006 even if the current event manages a 50 cm gain (unlikely). What’s surprising is that that is even possible in such a wet year. June-July precipitation at Thredbo Village (perhaps the most secure mountain record) is already over 450 mm and looks like beating 500 mm. June-July 2006 was 175 mm, and June-July 1982 (the previous worst season) was just 78 mm. In the past, wipe-out seasons have been drought years.
I still think we’ll easily beat 2006, though my pre-season prediction of 170 cm is starting to look difficult.
Will you update this graph too gerg?