26-28 July

Outcome added…

OK, big call I know, but my very long range calls have been turning out pretty well so far this season. There is definitely something there in the spaghetti plot. Fuzzy, yes, but powerful. Disturbances like this in distant numerical integrations* can and do dissipate, but if this one doesn’t there’ll be yet more snow, ’roundabout the weekend a fortnight from now.

Update (14 July): I’m not giving up on this yet. There is still something there, but “powerful”, no; not. After a breathtaking start we may be looking at a quieter couple of weeks once the current system passes. By then it will be nearly August, which is not what it once was. And El Niño quietly builds. Maybe my season prediction is still in with a rough chance.

Update 2 (17 July): Don’t write this off; there’s still something. Maybe the main action will be a couple of days later, or else starting around the 26th and extending later through multiple follow-ups. (Call that cheating if you like, but who else calls systems from 17 days out? This one is actually hanging in there.)

Update 3 (23 July): This horse is nearly dead; move on. A whimper Thursday night (24 June), then a breezy gasp Monday or Tuesday (28-29 June), but little in the way of snow on the ground. Looking forward, there’s not much showing in the model ensembles over the next 14 days. It’s not likely, but it’s not impossible that this week’s depth reading will be the season peak. (The season peak depth at Spencers Creek, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, is usually around the last week of August or first week of September, but “usual” is a not a word that can fairly be applied to our snow weather anymore.)

 

Outcome: Much as per the third update unfortunately; my first serious miss of the season. The “wet whimper” started a bit earlier (midday Thursday) and lasted a bit longer (through Friday) than expected, but was otherwise as predicted. I actually saw a whole 2 cm of fresh accumulated at one stage, somewhere out there. “Breezy gasp” was pretty accurate too I think. A bit of snow certainly fell, but presumably settled way off in some gully, far to the east.

 

(* Spatial and temporal integrations of the governing differential equations, by sophisticated computer weather models.)

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