2-3 August

Outcome:

About 10 cm snowfall; a little more in Victoria. And of course, quite substantial falls in the Blue Mountains and points west as the system moved north.

 

Update (1 Aug):

There’s been a massive downgrade of this system in that last couple of model runs. The Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-R model has pre-event rain today and tonight (Monday), perhaps with some wet snowfalls at higher elevations. The proper cold doesn’t arrive until very early tomorrow morning, but then the whole thing moves rapidly north clearing the alps by the afternoon. And the follow-up low now forms far to the north near the NSW-Qld border, bringing zero snow weather.

The US GFS model looks a mite worse if anything:

GFS for Monday night, from Levl Cowan

GFS for Monday night, from Levi Cowan

GFS for Tuesday morning

GFS for Tuesday morning

 
So my snow depth prediction is safe again, even perhaps a touch high. Prediction is a tough game, as Karl says.

 

Original post (28 July):

Another serious polar lobe is brewing for next week. My season peak snow depth prediction is in real trouble now.

1 comment to 2-3 August

  • richardoz45

    (Made this comment on your 2016 prediction post. May not be noticed so bringing it forward to here)

    157.5 cm actual v. 159 cm. estimated.

    Good estimate but sad snow. Manufactured snow saved the day temporarily. Maybe the global warming deniers should try skiing. All skiers should get right behind renewable energy and help shut down large scale fossil fuel burning for energy. We can’t depend on volcanic eruptions and the misery they often cause to give us good snow.

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