On the board, with a bang

And the main event is still coming.

Spencers Creek snow depth, from Snowy Hydro

Spencers Creek snow depth, from Snowy Hydro Limited

 
Such a big fall from a minor lead-up system sure is a surprise to me, but it’s entirely consistent with what BOM’s Perisher Valley automatic weather station has been showing — nearly constant snowfall for two days:

BOM Perisher Valley winterised AWS, 1738 m elevation.

BOM Perisher Valley winterised AWS, 1738 m elevation.

 
 
I guess this reflects how wet our bit of atmosphere is compared to recent years, consistent with a gathering negative Indian Ocean Dipole event and a Pacific Ocean flipping towards La Niña (though it may not get there) — see my snow depth prediction.

But is my 2016 prediction already looking a mite sick? Watch out for the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Models have had it petering out for about a week now, but it keeps pushing on strongly towards zones 5/6, our sweet spot.

European model MJO forecast, from the US Climate Prediction Centre

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