5-6 July

Outcome:

Pretty much as per the update. It looks like there might have been nearly 20 cm at Perisher Valley on Tuesday, then 25 mm of rain Wednesday-Thursday. Victoria looks similar or a little wetter.

 

Update #1 (4 July):

Make it a day later. There is plenty of precipitation in this event. That’ll be snow to low levels tomorrow (5 July), but as an east coast low forms and moves slowly away, warmer air will wrap it, raising the snow level to the highest peaks on Wednesday. I think we’ll still see a decent net gain, though that may not show in the measured depth on Thursday due to consolidation of the new snow from the previous big fall.

 

Original post (29 June):

Yet another 20-30cm class system is showing for Monday-Tuesday. This fast rotation of useful snow systems is very encouraging; winter systems more usually run at about one a week.

GFS for Tuesday, from Levi Cowan.

 
But the one I’m really watching is due around 12-14 July. It could be big, especially as the MJO keeps defying all the dynamical ocean models and powering on towards our sweet spot in zones 5 & 6.

 
BTW, BOM has been unwilling or unable to explain the obvious large discrepancy between CPC’s MJO estimates and theirs. As at 27 June, BOM had ‘RMM1’ at 1.40. CPC had it at about 2.1.

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