An April snow depth?

Update 2: The models have settled now.  Still looking cold, but not much snow.

There’ll be some snow this weekend, probably 20+ cm up high, but will it survive until Snowy Hydro’s usual weekly measure on Thursday 30 April? Wednesday will be warm, so perhaps not, but if it does it will be the first recorded April snow depth since 2009 — which was a stunning 53.9 cm, also on 30 April. Don’t get too excited though; that lot had all melted by the end of May, and the ensuing snow season was ordinary (148 cm peak depth). The chances of April snow surviving into the main season snowpack are slight; the record shows that happening only twice in the 61 year snow depth history. (Early season snow depths are not always measured and recorded by Snowy Hydro. April depths were recorded at Spencers Creek in 1960, 1972, 1982, 1990, 1996 and 2009. Of those just 1960 and 1972 survived, the latter by a whisker.)

 

GFS prediction for Saturday 4:00pm, from Levi Cowan


 

GFS vs ECMWF:

GFS
ECMWF