2015 April « Gerg's Net

The structure of global climate models

By Gerg, on April 30th, 2015

Strusture of the NASA GISS global climate model

Don’t believe in global climate modelling? Maybe you should actually read something about it before cementing a conclusion. A new paper¹ by Kaitlin Alexander (now at UNSW) and Steve Easterbrook (Toronto) is moderately approachable and gives some interesting insights

. . . → Read More: The structure of global climate models

Madden-Julian and snow

By Gerg, on April 29th, 2015

Also see: Madden-Julian and snow #2

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a fairly regular eastward-propagating pulse of equatorial cloud and rainfall affecting our region, named after the two US meteorologists who identified it in the 1970s. It usually repeats about every 30 to 60 days. While the effect is mostly tropical, it does correlate with our alpine snow in some phases, in ways that may be useful for long-range forecasting.

. . . → Read More: Madden-Julian and snow

An April snow depth?

By Gerg, on April 21st, 2015

Update 2: The models have settled now. Still looking cold, but not much snow.

There’ll be some snow this weekend, probably 20+ cm up high, but will it survive until Snowy Hydro’s usual weekly measure on Thursday 30 April?

. . . → Read More: An April snow depth?

Australian snow season start

By Gerg, on April 17th, 2015

Updated & corrected: Rationalised sub-intervals used for plotting; 1957 had a July zero

While we’re waiting for some real snow, I’ve updated the season start chart

. . . → Read More: Australian snow season start

Cloud seeding and snow

By Gerg, on April 12th, 2015

It’s the stuff of charlatan rainmakers of old — when the weird dance doesn’t cut it, try firing some fancy pyrotechnics skywards and hope for a lucky cloudburst. Those pyrotechnics are not so very far from what Snowy Hydro has been up to for over a decade now, hoping to increase winter snowfall over our alps. But to what effect?

. . . → Read More: Cloud seeding and snow

Season 2015 snow depth prediction

By Gerg, on April 2nd, 2015

Updated…

Time to give this a try: the Spencers Creek season peak snow depth for season 2015 will be 141 ± 44 cm. . . . → Read More: Season 2015 snow depth prediction

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