Lowest and earliest Arctic sea ice maximum

By Gerg, on March 26th, 2015
PIOMAs northern sea ice volume

The northern sea ice has now reached its seasonal maximum extent. This year’s is the lowest and earliest maximum of the satellite era (since 1979).

. . . → Read More: Lowest and earliest Arctic sea ice maximum

Comments are closed   Uncategorized

Trend significance

By Gerg, on March 21st, 2015

Updated: happy now; the words “hypothesis” and “null” do not appear (except to discard them).

There’d be no more abused tool in all of science than the linear regression “p-value” for trend significance. Don’t take my word for it; the problem is so severe that some technical journals have actually considered banning publication of p-values.

. . . → Read More: Trend significance

Comments are closed   Uncategorized

Spencers Creek snow depth prediction model - mark IV

By Gerg, on March 3rd, 2015

Updated: added residuals plot

I’m really impressed by this. I now have a snow depth prediction model that “explains” 50% of the variance in the Spencers Creek season peak snow depth record (midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, from Snowy Hydro). When you consider the vagaries of weather, snowfall, compaction, melt and weekly measurement, that really is a surprising achievement. I sure didn’t expect to get anywhere near it when I started out nearly a decade ago.

. . . → Read More: Spencers Creek snow depth prediction model – mark IV

Comments are closed   Uncategorized