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Outcome added… This just keeps on coming. There’s a hint of more activity, midweek, week after next. Update (27 June): The action is much more diffuse in today’s various computations; lets see what develops. There’s still a hint of something coming in the ECMWF ensemble. Update 2 (30 June): This one is more solid now, and drifting later as long range system forecasts generally do. And the little low passing through on the weekend has firmed up in both ECMWF . . . → Read More: 9-11 July 
Further updated: Snowy Hydro have now reported 88 cm net snow depth gain (at Spencers Creek near Charlotte Pass, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo) for the week ending 26 June — not a record but a major dump by our standards. I say >50 cm week-on-week snow depth gain at Spencers Creek is officially an Aussie “dump”. The record weekly snow depth gain there was 109.5 cm for the week ending 8 August 1996. The Perisher Valley automatic weather . . . → Read More: Duuummmmmmmmmmpp 
Updated… The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting well over 100 mm of precipitation for our alps across the 8 days to Monday 30 June. Nearly all of that would be snow at the predicted temperatures, for potentially 1 m aggregate snowfall, an extraordinary outcome by Australian standards. The highest recorded one week depth gain at Spencers Creek (near Charlotte Pass, midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo) was 109.5 cm in the week to 8 August 1996. This event won’t . . . → Read More: Extraordinary forecast 
Outcome added… Did I say 7-day winter pattern? A hint of more snowy weather is showing early in the week after next. Update (22 June): Shifted dates backwards one day. There’s something there, but the timing is still diffuse; uncertain. Update 2 (23 June): Up on ECMWF and BOM ACCESS now. (They don’t yet agree; the higher resolution EC model tends to be more reliable than ACCESS-G at this range.) This system now looks to be arriving even earlier — . . . → Read More: 28-30 June 
(Sorry Victoria…) This shows Australian snow depths for season 2014 measured by Snowy Hydro Limited at Spencers Creek near Charlotte Pass village midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo, NSW, against a background of selected historical depth information. You may need to click refresh on your browser to see the latest plot. Spencers Creek snow depths for season 2014, from Snowy Hydro Limited
Notes: Depths are recorded on a measuring course north of the Kosciusko Road between the . . . → Read More: Finally, we’re off 
This is “the famous spag plot“. I posted this primer over at the graphs collection, but some may have missed it there. Current spaghetti animation
The spaghetti plot is a quite old (1996?) “experimental” product of the Earth System Research Laboratory of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, using output from the US National Weather Service’s Environmental Modeling Center and National Centers for Environment Prediction. It looks like a mess, but it’s really pretty simple, and useful. . . . → Read More: Reading the spaghetti plot 
Outcome added… Spag shows more snow on the way early next week. It looks like we may have dropped straight from nothing into a pretty standard 7-10 day winter weather pattern. Update (19 June): This is well up on ECMWF and BOM ACCESS now, and looking very wet and westerly. Nevertheless I’ll be surprised if there isn’t 20+ cm in it, with the outside chance of a far bigger number (even a dump!). There’s also a possibility of small follow-ups . . . → Read More: 23-24 June 
Outcome added… A fair way out, and a little late (I said week ending 14 June way back on May 26), but it looks like there’s a decent chance of snow early next week. All three models I follow have something showing, though they sure don’t agree. Update: This is going to be marginal. After a wet weekend, it looks like the cold doesn’t arrive until Monday, and of course by then most of the moisture has passed. ECMWF and . . . → Read More: First snow #2+ 
One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #3. To finish this series, it remains to translate the method we’ve developed across to Australia’s best-known snow depth record at Spencers Creek near Charlotte Pass, New South Wales (midway between Perisher Valley and Thredbo; data from Snowy Hydro Limited). At about 1830 m elevation, Spencers Creek is Australia’s highest snow depth record, so zero depth there may well mean no natural snow cover anywhere in Australia. Unfortunately the Bhend et . . . → Read More: The coming zero snow depth season #4 
One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #3, #4 It’s June, so the parameter estimates have firmed; time to update. Last time the prediction was 170 ± 45 cm. . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction #5 |
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