May appears to be shaping as one of the warmest on record across eastern Australia. Surely that must presage a dreadful snow season? Well, no, not really; there’s very little correlation
. . . → Read More: Warm May?
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The polar vortex is finally starting to boil. No, not our way … towards South America:
This is “the famous spag plot“. It shows a US weather model prediction of the state of the southern polar circulation for later this week. Simply put, we need at least the main spaghetti of red lines — preferably the blue lines — to sweep our alps for us to get snow. There’s no sign of that in the current model runs . . . → Read More: First snow #2 
One of a series; also see editions: #1, #2, #4. Care, some of what follows isn’t pretty. What’s needed to get an answer here is to connect a robust prediction of future climate to our future snow depths. I don’t have to tell a snow weather audience that the best predictions come from the best, most sophisticated models; we see that every week from ECMWF and BOM ACCESS. The best predictions of future climate come from sophisticated global climate models. . . . → Read More: The coming zero snow depth season #3 
One of a series; also see editions: #1, #3, #4 Well that’s easy … why not just take the peak depth trend (from Spencers Creek, near Charlotte Pass, Australia) and extrapolate? Hey, zero in 2270, no worries: I can think of at least four things wrong with that (below) but it’s enough to notice that the trend is rather poorly defined statistically (knowing nothing else*), so simple extrapolation is seriously dubious. If we just consider the uncertainty in the . . . → Read More: The coming zero snow depth season #2 |
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