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Outcome added Why not, it’s May. Looks like snow Friday night, maybe as far north as Armidale, though if the pattern on several models holds the alps might miss the best of it (I think it will shift). [Update: It hasn’t shifted; models were spot-on 3 days out. Alps will get snow though. Go you good thing…] The more interesting question is will enough settle to last through to Thursday for our first depth measurement of the season? That’s likely . . . → Read More: First snow 
Updated… One of the more amusing moments in the annals of climate change denial was surely when the billionaire conservative Koch brothers decided to fund the Berkeley Earth project to reassess global temperature change. Presumably they expected their select team (including Ms Curry) to obtain the “right” answer, unlike all those fools before them — especially the wicked US government ones at NOAA and NASA. Unsurprisingly, after studying long and hard on the matter, the Berkeley Earth team came up . . . → Read More: …and then there were eight 
With the Snowy Hydro snow depth records (from New South Wales, Australia), the other high-quality Australian snow depth record is the one now kept by AGL Hydro at Rocky Valley Dam near Falls Creek in Victoria. This is actually Australia’s longest snow depth record¹, with data extending back to 1935 (with gaps) and possibly earlier. Unfortunately the data from the 1930s and 40s was recorded on a different basis and on a somewhat longer measurement course compared to the . . . → Read More: Adding Rocky Valley Dam (Falls Creek) 
One of a series; also see editions: #2, #3, #4 I guess lots of people hear global warming predictions of a couple of degrees increase and think, so what? Take a close look at the snow depth prediction equation. The factor on southern sea surface temperature¹ (SST) is -130. That’s right, a 1°C increase in southern ocean temperature decreases our season peak, high-altitude snow depth² by 130 cm. But it’s not quite that simple. Multiple regression factors reflect the whole . . . → Read More: The coming zero snow depth season, #1 
One of a series, also see editions: #1, #2, #3, #5 Time for a real prediction … the Spencers Creek¹ peak depth for season 2014 will be 170 ± 45 cm. Last time I described my new prediction model incorporating southern sea surface temperature. The new formula goes like this: Spencers Creek peak depth (cm) = 1248 – 0.49 x year – 19.3 x AAO + 1.63 x SOI – 11.9 x IOD – 9.06 x PDO – . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction, #4 
For us, El Niño1 means drought conditions and less snow. Unfortunately the Pacific could well be brewing up a strong one right now. For our 2014 snow season, much depends on how quickly it develops (if it does at all). The Southern Oscillation Index2 has already plummeted well into El Niño territory, and so far it has stayed down. We need it to bounce, soon:
And the Bureau’s3 numerical modelling is prognosticating a strongish El Niño by later . . . → Read More: The gathering El Niño… 
One of a series, also see editions: #1, #2, #4, #5 Updated… OK, here’s how the new prediction model including southern sea surface temperatures goes:
The correlation coefficient rises to a healthy 44% (the standard error falls to 47 cm). The new model really only misses badly around Pinatubo1 (1991 & 1992) and the 2006 wipe-out. Basis: My previous model used these parameters: calendar year, to model the downtrend winter average2 Antarctic Oscillation3 (AAO) winter average Southern Oscillation . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction, #3 
One of a series, also see editions: #1, #3, #4, #5 While we wait for the prediction parameters to firm up (El Niño is now even money), it’s worth checking what a naive statistical prediction for 2014 looks like. By naive I mean one that ignores influences external to the snow depth data (like El Niño), not one with weak statistics. The obvious approach, used in the plot above, is to treat our 60 years of snow depth data (from . . . → Read More: Season 2014 snow depth prediction, #2 |
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