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The big melt is underway, a month ahead of usual. And Deep Creek at ~1620 m has already hit zero snow depth, after managing to beat the average in just one week this year — by a whole 3 cm back in mid May. On the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Q&A program on Monday night an earnest gentleman challenged the somewhat baffled David Suzuki about the implications of the “heavy” snowfall at Perisher Valley last week. The level of ignorance required . . . → Read More: Melt accelerates 
The 2013 Spencers Creek peak snow depth is in at 185.9 cm on 26 August. Time to check on the prediction model. My pre-season prediction from back in April was 170 ± 50 cm, so that’s a tick. Not quite so fast though. My method uses multiple linear regression with a range of parameters with links to our snow season: Spencers Creek peak depth (cm) = 1438 – 0.61 x year – 24.8 x AAO + 0.86 x SOI – . . . → Read More: Prediction vs performance PIOMAS tracks the total volume of sea ice floating on the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. September generally sees the end of the melt season, so it’s time to see how 2013 went. For those paying attention, this year has been something of a breather in a breakneck decline. Are we perhaps seeing the beginnings of an S-curve tail out, or will next year again plummet towards zero summer ice?
PIOMAS northern sea ice volume
Update . . . → Read More: PIOMAS update Look, this won’t affect me; I’ll be dead. But if you’re 20-something you really ought to have noticed by now that our snow season is stuffed. By the time you’re my age there won’t be one. No debate, data doesn’t lie: Spencers Creek integral snow depth trend The main contenders for this election both promise the same grossly inadequate short term emission reductions. Only one offers a mechanism with a chance of working at any sort of adequate . . . → Read More: Vote for snow It’s getting late in the year for snow, but it looks like there’ll be ~10-20 cm in this interval. The polar vortex remains fairly active – witness the cold spell in Peru last week and the recent, strongly negative AAO. Outcome: A complex period of activity with some snow early in the interval, but not enough for a net gain on the week. Score 7/10. . . . → Read More: 10-12 September 2013 |
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