28-30 July 2013

What’s next? The NCEP GFS ensemble is suggesting action Sunday week. It is smeared out in time, but appears moderately strong — all those blue contours near Victoria. Seems we are settling into the usual weekly storm pattern of our winter.

Update (20/7): Just coming up on EC now, a day later than at GFS. Moved dates forward 1 day.

Update 2 (22/7): This system is now well up on EC. Unfortunately that model is now showing some initial rain Sunday, with snow Monday into Monday night. Not much … maybe 15 cm.

Outcome (30/7): Nearly all rain, ~20 mm at Perisher; maybe a centimetre or two of snow here or there today. The cold front weakened out before reaching the alps, which was well predicted by BOM’s short-range ACCESS-R; not so well by ECMWF.

Worst prediction effort ever: range excellent (12 days), timing ok after early update, shape all wrong (no snow); score 5/10.


00z 29.7.2013