Models agree there’ll be quite a bit of rain Sunday-Monday from the tropical feed ahead of the low, then a nice cold winter blast Tuesday-Wednesday. We should see another net gain in snow depth at Thursday’s measure.
GFS for Sunday night, from Levi Cowan
…And for Tuesday
The next polar lobe is due around 22-23 July. (Yep, 14-day weather forecasting really is a thing. Demonstrably so for several years now.)
Original post (4 July):
This is the first really big polar lobe of the season. It looks good, despite the untimely death of the MJO. Here’s the spag, currently in ‘weird mode’ but that will update shortly:
500 hPa spaghetti plot for 12 July
Do you see snow to sealevel in Tasmania with this system, as some are hinting at, probably prematurely?
It’s a little early; haven’t really looked yet (busy battling with stupid WordPress stupid image upload). That would need freezing level below about 400 m. Close, but no cigar.